Study on ARIMA Modelling to Forecast Area and Production of Kharif Rice in West Bengal

Crop area estimation and crop yield forecasts are key procedures for assisting policymakers in making decisions about land use, food security, and environmental challenges. Crop yield forecasting is the art of predicting crop yields before the harvest time, typically a couple of months in advance. The goal of this study was to provide a complete picture of West Bengal's current kharif rice production status. Based on India’s agriculture statistics, the largest rice-producing states is West Bengal which alone contributes 15 percent of total paddy produced within the country. Time series modelling using ARIMA (p, d, q) model was developed for individual univariate series of both area and production of kharif rice in West Bengal since 1962. Both the models exhibit good accuracy level for future projection of area and production of kharif rice for West Bengal.